2008 Dodgers Projections

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

C Russell Martin
.286 AVG, 17 HR, 82 RBI
1B James Loney
.292 AVG, 18 HR, 88 RBI
2B Jeff Kent
.272 AVG, 14 HR, 65 RBI
3B Nomar Garciaparra*
.266 AVG, 14 HR, 60 RBI
SS Rafael Furcal
.301 AVG, 8 HR, 48 RBI
LF Andre Ethier*
.288 AVG, 18 HR, 72 RBI
CF Andruw Jones
.262 AVG, 34 HR, 104 RBI
RF Matt Kemp
.298 AVG, 17 HR, 84 RBI

3B Andy LaRoche*
.258 AVG, 16 HR, 58 RBI

LF Juan Pierre
.300 AVG, 0 HR, 32 RBI

SP Brad Penny
15-5 W-L, 3.49 ERA, 138 K
SP Derek Lowe
11-11 W-L, 4.24 ERA, 133 K
SP Chad Billingsly
14-8 W-L, 4.04 ERA, 157 K
SP Hiroki Kuroda
10-9 W-L, 4.34 ERA, 123 K
SP Esteban Loaiza*
7-10 W-L, 4.89 ERA, 82 K

Jason Schmidt*
8-11 W-L, 4.78 ERA, 109 K

*assuming they start.

NOTE: THIS IS A PROJECTION, SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

9 comments:

Anonymous 4:57 PM CST  

so even with joe torre...you do not see them as a playoff team.

Anonymous 5:04 PM CST  

with the addition of blanton....would this make them any better?

Anonymous 5:58 PM CST  

Even with Joe Torre, I doubt the Dodgers win 90 games. Unfortunatly about 94-96 is going to be needed to win the division. I also think the wild card will come from the NL East. No way Nomar get enough at bats to get 60 rbi. Juan Pierre will not last past April, due to his poor arm. You can't have someone with a girls arm playing left field. They depend on too many young guns such as Laroche, Kemp, Loney, Either, Billingsly, and Kuroda to win the division. I expect it to take a year or two for Torre to impost his style on the team/roster. Look for this team to be very strong in 2010, possibly a World Series Bid.

jimodirak@aol.com

Anonymous 6:01 PM CST  

I really don't understand why the Dodgers are being overlooked in 08...these are horrible predictions, in particular with Loney and Martin, who is by far the best catcher in the NL. I don't think they;ll take the series, but will definitely be a contender for the playoffs.

Anonymous 9:49 PM CST  

I expect the Dodgers to either have LaRoche as the regular 3rd baseman or trade for one before the end of May. Nomar is great in the clutch but his body is showing the sign of wear and tear. Pierre will only be on the starting roster if he can use his speed to his advantage. I do expect the hitting style of Pierre to be altered by Mattingly and Easler before the start of the regular season. Ethier should be the regular LF, but Pierre has the trump card called speed and base stealing threat. It will be hard for Torre not to use Pierre speed as a weapon inspite of his weak arm and average defense, although LF will improve Pierre defensive numbers.

Mike Clarke 9:40 AM CST  

Not very favorable towards the Dodgers. You are predicting down years for almost everyone and no growth from the young players.

This is the way I see it...

OFFENSIVE PLAYERS
C: Russell Martin: Martin was an all star in his first full season of baseball in 2007 and looks to build on those numbers in 2008. Martin’ power numbers should continue to develop, but I look for Joe Torre to restrict his stolen base attempts this year in an effort to keep the workhorse fresh throughout the year. With only Gary Bennett slated to back him up, Martin will likely be asked to start another 140 plus games this year. Martin should be drafted amongst the top four catchers in baseball.

2008 Projection: .290 Average, 23 HRs, 85 Runs, 90 RBIs, 12 SBs


1B: James Loney: Most Dodgers fans were exasperated with Ned Colletti’s decision to send a clearly ready for the big show James Loney to minors to start 2007 in favor of a broken down and washed up Nomar Garciaparra. Once he arrived, he showed why he belongs. In just 446 career ABs over the course of parts of two seasons, James Loney has slugged .543 with 24 doubles, 9 triples, and 19 HRs. Project that over a full season and you have a potential monster on your hands. At just 24 years of age, as he fills out his power will improve. Loney could put up better numbers then the more famous Todd Helton as soon as 2008 and should be ranked just outside the top ten at 1B this year.

2008 Projection: .296 Average, 21 HRs, 80 Runs, 87 RBIs


2B: Jeff Kent: Despite being a bit long in the tooth, Jeff Kent continues to show little signs of slowing down. At age 40, he will battle some injuries along the way, which might limit some of his counting statistics. However, batting in the middle of an improved Dodgers lineup should be good production out of the second base position once again. He should rank in the top ten at the position this year and if you drafted an OF for speed like a Michael Bourn, adding Jeff Kent’s power and RBIs at 2B makes a lot of sense. 2008 Projection: .288 Average, 19 HRs, 77 Runs, 84 RBIs


SS: Rafael Furcal: 2007 was a lost season for Furcal and his fantasy owners. Other than a couple of hot streaks in which many owners had him on the bench, he was an absolute bust last year as he battled a season long ankle injury. Look for a healthy Furcal in a contract year to bounce back with more typical numbers. The Dodgers will decide based on this year’s performance whether to extend him or go with Hu in 2009.

2008 Projection: .278 Average, 12 HRs, 105 Runs, 48 RBIs, 32 SBs


3B: Andy LaRoche/Nomar Garciaparra: The Dodgers have two position battles going into spring training and this is the least predictable of the two. Nomar is likely to be relegated to a utility role by Memorial Day, but might still open the season at 3B. Nomar should not be on your fantasy team this year. As for LaRoche he was the most highly touted of the Dodgers young prospects, but is the last one to arrive. He has shown tremendous plate discipline and a good walk/strikeout rate throughout the minors, which bodes well to future success in the big leagues. Despite some struggles during a short mid-season call up, LaRoche slugged nearly .600 at AAA last year and should develop into a productive player. Draft LaRoche in NL Only leagues and keeper leagues. 3B is deep this year, so in one year mixed leagues keep an eye on LaRoche and add him if it is clear he will play regularly.

LaRoche 2008 Projection: .400 ABs, 281 Average, 14 HRs, 55 Runs, 50 RBIs


LF: Juan Pierre/Andre Ethier: As a Dodgers fan, I would clearly like Juan Pierre to just go away. However, with his contract, that appears unlikely. Barring a trade, Pierre will still get 500 ABs and be the one trick pony again with 40 plus SBs. Ethier on the other hand looks like a player who although not as hyped as a Matt Kemp has continued to improve. Ethier will not put above average numbers in any category and is more of a NL Only player, but he would be a serviceable 5th OF in Mixed Leagues if Pierre were traded. If Pierre is moved or Torre has the guts to bench him, Ethier’s numbers will improve.

Pierre 2008 Projection: .288 Average, 0 HRs, 86 Runs, 28 RBIs, 42 SBs

Ethier 2008 Projection: 375 ABs, .299 Average, 14 HRs, 48 Runs, 57 RBIs


STARTING PITCHERS


Brad Penny: Brad Penny has made the All Star team the past two seasons and has shown the clear trend of performing better in the first half of seasons. He is big man who tends to wear down a bit as the dog days of summer set in. He is certainly one of the better pitchers in the National League and he picked up CY Young votes last year. If you draft him and can get full value in a trade in July/August then move him to fill in holes. Penny despite having his best overall season in 2007, he saw a sharp decline in his strikeout rates, which hurts his value. He should be drafted amongst the top 25 SPs.

2008 Projection: 15 Wins 10 Losses 3.58 ERA, 1.288 WHIP, 209 IP, 140 Strikeouts


Chad Billingsley: If I could only have on Dodgers starting pitcher it would be this young man. He has struggled with command and pitching deep into ballgames during his young career. However, he is just 23 years old and has the makings and body type of a number one starting pitcher. He has been compared to Tom Seaver from physical standpoint as he really uses his legs to get his power. Anyone in a keeper league should target C-Bills.

2008 Projection: 14 Wins 8 Losses 3.67 ERA, 1.396 WHIP, 192 IP, 180 Strikeouts



Derek Lowe: The Lowe down on Derek, is you know what you are going to get. He has been fairly consistent as a Dodger except when he was having an affair. Lowe is a back of the rotation pitcher in mixed leagues and mid level pitcher in NL Only leagues. Lowe is not a strikeout pitcher, but throws enough innings where he is solid in all areas, and will not hurt you in any ratios. He is in a contract year, so look for him to have added motivation going into 2008

2008 Projection: 16 Wins 11 Losses 3.48 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, 222 IP, 151 Strikeouts


Hiroki Kuroda: Obviously I have not seen him pitch, so I can only project based on what I have read. Kuroda will be a back of the rotation pitcher with good command and below average strikeout numbers. Whether or not he will be able to justify his big contract remains to be seen.

2008 Projection: 11 Wins 10 Losses 4.38 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, 182 IP, 116 Strikeouts


Esteban Loaiza: Stay away, far away!


Jason Schmidt: The Dodgers should contend this year regardless of what they get out of Schmidt. However, if he is healthy for just part of the season, then it will be an added plus. Last year Schmidt was terrible and tried to comeback before he was truly healthy. I would look for the Dodgers to be a bit more cautious with him in 2008 and if/when he comes back, he should healthy.

2008 Projection: 8 Wins 4 Losses 3.78 ERA, 1.225 WHIP, 112 IP, 98 Strikeouts


BULLPEN
Takashi Saito: Saito has been Ned Colletti’s greatest find. Once Gagne went down and Saito took over for good, he has been lights out! He has been one of the best closers in baseball the past two seasons. The only read flags on Saito were some shoulder tightness last year and the fact that he is 38 years of age. Look for Saito to have one more good year as the Dodgers closer.

2008 Projection: 3 Wins 2 Losses 2.28 ERA, 1.018 WHIP, 62 IP, 81 Strikeouts 35 Saves


Jonathan Broxton: Big Bad Jon is the Dodgers closer in waiting. Before a late season slump that coincided with the Dodgers collapse last year, Broxton was un-hittable, not yielding a HR for the equivalence of an entire season dating back to 2006. If you draft Saito, you might want to back him up with Broxton or if you are in a keeper league, get Broxton cheap this year and keep him for 2009.

2008 Projection: 5 Wins 3 Losses 2.48 ERA, 1.148 WHIP, 72 IP, 96 Strikeouts 5 Saves



Dodgers 2008 Break Out Player

Matt Kemp: Matt Kemp is perhaps the best athlete in the Dodgers organization. He is five-tool stud, who despite some struggles judging flyballs should be a fixture in the Dodger outfield for years to come. Kemp got a mid season call up in 2006 and smacked seven homeruns over a two-week stretch in June, but struggled with breaking pitches in the dirt the rest of the way. Kemp battled early season injuries in 2007, but finished strong, batting .337 with 7 HRs in just over 200 ABs after the All Star Break. Kemp is poised to break out in 2008 and become a perennial 30-30 threat for the Dodgers and fantasy owners. Only two things could derail a Kemp breakout in 2008, the outfield split between Kemp, Pierre, and Ethier. You have to hope Torre recognizes Kemp’s talent and he plays everyday. The other being poor plate discipline, Kemp is a free swinger who does not walk at all. Expect some batting average struggles, but an overall strong fantasy year from Kemp.

2008 Projection: .287 Average, 26 HRs, 91 Runs, 78 RBIs, 28 SBs


Dodgers 2008 Bounce Back Player

Andruw Jones: Jones battled the pressures of a contract year and nagging injuries in 2007 that disappointed fantasy owners. Jones will be reunited with good friend Rafael Furcal as both players look to rebound in 2008. Jones will likely bat 4th for the Dodgers and should return to form with more typical numbers. Dodger Stadium has a reputation for being a pitcher’s ballpark, but that is not really the case. Much of the foul territory has been eliminated and the park dimensions are favorable to hitters, the ball really travels during day games, and it tends to play as a good HR ballpark. This bodes well for Jones.

2008 Projection: .277 Average, 36 HRs, 104 Runs, 118 RBIs, 5 SBs

Mike Clarke

http://melnickandgrecofantasysports.com/DODGERS-2008-FANTASY-PREVIEW.html

Anonymous 10:19 AM CST  

My only comment is that you have James Loney's numbers way off. He will most definitely hit over .300, and considering the fact that he had I wanna say 15 or 17 homers in about half to two-thirds of a season, his homer and RBI totals will be higher. James Loney is going to be the best first baseman in baseball in a couple years, just watch.

Anonymous 8:32 PM CST  

Eli, could you give us your 2008 phillies projections. thanks

Anonymous 9:33 AM CDT  

Even as a Rockies fan, I don't think these are great predictions. I'm quite sure one of Martin, Loney, Kemp or Kent will at least hit .300. I mean, come on.
I'm also a little bit skeptical about the fact that only Andruw Jones will drive in over 100 runs.
Pitching-wise, however, I think these predictions are closer. Although I think Billingsley is better than a 4.04 ERA pitcher. And if he is 4.04, he won't win 14 games with your predicted offense.