The Morning Word: 2008 MLB Mock Draft

Thursday, May 15, 2008

I have been hesitant to get to work on a Mock Draft, mostly because it is early and so much will change between now and June 5th, but I decided to get to work on it anyways. Here is a look at what I think will go down on June 5th:

1) Tampa Bay Rays -- Buster Posey, C
- It has come out in recent weeks that the Rays are very high on Buster Posey. The Rays have been weak at the catcher position and Posey is a good catcher with a great eye at the plate. I expect him to spend some time in the minors to gain more experience, but he should be a pretty good catcher for them.

2) Pittsburgh Pirates -- Tim Beckham, SS
- The best shortstop in the draft, Beckham has been compared to the Upton brothers in high school. Taking a chance on Beckham from high school will be cheaper than some of the other hitters, and it could turn out even better for the Pirates than other teams because of his upside.

3) Kansas City Royals -- Brian Matusz, LHP
- The Royals are not afraid to hand out big money, so don't rule out Alvarez or Hosmer, but Matsuz is the best lefty in the draft and is expected to rise fast. He is very high on draft boards right now and would be hard to pass up.

4) Baltimore Orioles -- Pedro Alvarez, 3B
- The Orioles are not afraid to hand out big money either. They drafted Matt Weiters in the last draft, which makes me think they might go with pitching. If that is the case, I see them taking Aaron Crow. If my mock draft comes true, it would be hard for the Orioles to pass up on Alvarez, who was ranked number one before the start of the season.

5) San Francisco Giants -- Aaron Crow, RHP
- Crow has electric stuff and has put together great outings in college, including a scoreless inning streak of over forty innings. The Giants need help, and it would be hard to pass up on this guy if he drops to five.

6) Florida Marlins -- Tim Melville, RHP
- The Marlins really like to take chances on good high school players, and Melville is that guy. He is a hard throwing right hander with an advanced second pitch for his age.

7) Cincinnati Reds -- Gordon Beckham, SS
- The Reds really like Beckham and is his ability to swing the bat. He is in the midst of one of the best seasons in the career, a sign for the Reds and other teams that he is starting to mature.

8) Chicago White Sox -- Brett Wallace, 1B
- Wallace has really turned it on as of late and that should help his draft stock. He is a big guy with good raw power.

9) Washington Nationals -- Tanner Sheppers, RHP
- He has great raw ability and would really help the Nationals. He throws very hard and should be a candidate for the rotation within a couple years.

10) Houston Astros -- Kyle Skipworth, C
- The Astros would really like to add some good talent to their minor league system and it starts with the college guys. Skipworth would be a steal if he is still around and he probably wouldn't cost the Astros too much.

I would love to go down to fifteen and add a couple more guys that I think are right up there, but predicting ten already seems like too many. Let me know what you think, and if you are up for it, leave me your own prediction.

In other news...

Hank Steinbrenner is getting on the nerves of several Front Office executives and players, according to a source close to the Yankees. This will likely lead to a major shake up this off season. Brian Cashman appears as good as gone.

Padres pitcher Mark Prior is heading back to Dr. James Andrews for another exam. It is possible he will need another surgery.

13 comments:

Anonymous 2:16 PM CDT  

Odd that you say the Giants need help & then pick a pitcher for them to draft. Pitching is the only place they don't need help. This is becoming a theme on this site I think...lack of real analysis.

Anonymous 4:03 PM CDT  

if aaron crow is around at 5...it would be hard to pass him up.

a pitcher can still help a team...even if they are good at the spot. (somewhat)

Anonymous 4:42 PM CDT  

And that kind of analysis is fine. But to say the Giants need help, so they'll draft Crow doesn't make any sense. I agree, pick the best available talent, don't draft for need. That said, I would never say the Giants have needs, so draft a pitcher. If someone is going to say the Giants need help (ie have needs), then make the argument to draft to fill needs.

The blog post was basically "The Padres are not any good, so they should draft player X". That is not analysis...it brings nothing. I go to this blog every day, but it really has gotten carried away with statements over analysis. At least criticism is posted...it gives me hope that it is considered as well...

Eli 4:45 PM CDT  

I see your over exaggeration. But I will be more conscience of it. Thanks for the advice.

Anonymous 6:58 PM CDT  

i feel the trend recently has been pitching,pitching, pitching...there may be too many position players on that top 10...you like analysis, how's ya like that analysis.

Anonymous 7:48 PM CDT  

Thanks Eli...didn't mean to go over the top...but wanted to make sure the point was made.

I'm fine with the Giants taking another pitcher (would turn down another tim lincecum?)...but i suspect they'll take a hitter. I'm going to guess Tim Beckham or Pedro Alvarez (the devil causing him to fall...well, the high bonus demand that will be coming with him).

Anonymous 7:51 AM CDT  

I agree with the first poster, especially considering the Giants took Alderson and Bumgarner in the 1st last year. They are loaded with arms.

FJ 6:17 PM CDT  

Eli- Dude, how do you not have Justin Smoak not in the top ten?
And then Fresno States' Tanner S-c-hepper going 9th, despite just being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his shoulder?

You're like two-three days behind on the news. Maybe check out:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2008/266117.html

or

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080514&content_id=2698111&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp&partnered=rss_mlb

Anonymous 8:05 PM CDT  

why take posey first overall? if he wasn't drafted first overall by the rays, he would probably fall down to the teens maybe the twenties. Rays have a solid young catcher in Navarro, it would be crazy if they took Posey. He is good but not first overall good. Beckham, Smoak, or Alvarez would be solid number one picks and are all franchise players. Bartlett can't hit, Pena is overrated and RF is wide open.

Anonymous 10:33 AM CDT  

I would be very surprised if Posey dropped out of the top 5, let alone the top 10. If he fell to the A's at 12 I would be estatic but it will never happen.

Scheppers looks likely to drop to the end of the first round at least after fracturing his shoulder. Also I think it is very unlikely that Wallace would go ahead of Smoak, Alonso and Hosmer - all 1Bmen more highly rated than Wallace.

Anonymous 12:57 AM CDT  

Posey is a great college player but will only be decent in the pros. He's a great contact hitter and will never hit for much power, he seems like a Jason Kendall type catcher. Even if Navarro doesn't pan out the Rays still have Riggans and Jaso waiting for an everyday opportunity. When drafting for need you should make sure the team is in need. Posey is good but not first overall good.

Anonymous 12:52 PM CDT  

Any thoughts on Yonder Alonso, Brett Wallace and Alex Meyers?

Anonymous 12:16 AM CDT  

if the Orioles land Pedro Alvarez I'll do cartwheels in my front yard like I did when we landed Wieters last year...if he doesn't fall, Smoak or either Crow or Matsuz would be a solid consolation prize....you see what solid picks like Upton and Longoria have done for the Rays....could you imagine an AL East with Baltimore and Tampa running things?